Mortgage Market Update: Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Hot CPI and Fed hike talk push the 10 Year back toward 5%: lock and do not wait.

Bonds are under pressure this morning after a hotter than expected October inflation report. Headline consumer prices rose 0.4% for the month, more than expected, and core CPI came in at 0.3% against 0.2% expected. The 10 Year Treasury yield is up about 7.4 bps to 4.960%, and UMBS 6.0 is down 0.42 points to 99.63.

The inflation data landed on top of fresh Fed commentary. Governor Waller floated the case for a 50 bps rate hike in December, and the front end of the curve took the brunt of it. The 2 Year yield is up 13.1 bps to 4.698%, which has flattened 2s/10s to 26.2 bps. Markets are repricing toward a more aggressive Fed, and that is exactly the kind of backdrop that keeps mortgage pricing heavy.

Yesterday bonds were looking increasingly comfortable with recent gains, and a 3 year note auction cleared at 4.627%. Today gives a good part of that back. The 10 Year is sitting just under the 5.00% level, and a push through it would put fresh yield highs back in play. Also note that bond markets are expected to be closed Wednesday for Veterans Day, so lenders may run limited desks and tighter lock availability around the holiday.

Today's News and Market Impact

The key story is inflation. October CPI showed headline prices up 0.4% and core up 0.3%, both firmer than forecasts. That undercuts the idea that price pressure is cooling fast enough to take hikes off the table, and it hits MBS harder than Treasuries because mortgage coupons are sensitive to rate volatility.

On the Fed, Waller's comment about a possible 50 bps hike in December has traders pricing in more tightening. Yesterday's tone from other officials was more measured, with one describing the jobs report as healthy but noting firms are still hiring and firing very little. Private payroll data also remains soft, with employers adding an average of roughly 19,750 jobs per week. A cooling job market alongside sticky inflation is a difficult mix for rates, and the market is leaning toward the inflation side today.

Benchmarks

10-Year Treasury: 4.960% ▲ (up 7.4 bps)

UMBS 6.0 Coupon: 99.63 ▼ (down 0.42 points)

2s/10s Spread: 26.2 bps (flatter)

Lock or Float?

15 Days: LOCK. Hot CPI, hike talk and a holiday shortened week make short term risk one sided. Protect the rate you have.

30 Days: LOCK. Yields are pressing the 5.00% level with no confirmed bottom. A December Fed decision falls inside this window.

30-45 Days: LOCK. One soft day will not change the trend. Until yields show a genuine reversal, there is no reason to take float risk.

45+ Days: LOCK. We remain in an active selloff with inflation re running hot. Wait for a confirmed bottom in yields before floating longer term.

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Drew Fisher, NMLS #44061 | Pure Rate Mortgage LLC, NMLS #2578474. This commentary is for educational purposes and is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of any rate or term.