Mortgage Market Update: Thursday, November 5, 2026

A stock market selloff is sending money into bonds, pulling the 10 Year yield down 5.2 bps with Friday's jobs report still ahead.

Stocks are getting hit hard this morning and bonds are the beneficiary. The Nasdaq Composite broke below its July low in a 5.5% rout, and after a swift reversal at the NYSE open, money is rotating out of equities and into Treasuries. The 10 Year Treasury yield is down to 4.835%, a drop of 5.2 bps on the day, and UMBS 6.0 is up to 100.28, a gain of 0.08. Bonds were reluctant to join the move early, but the rally has built through the morning.

Yesterday the market was celebrating a monster midterm rally in stocks. Today that has flipped into a sharp selloff, and the flight to safety is pushing yields lower across the curve. The 2 Year is down about 7 bps and the 5 Year about 7 bps, both falling faster than the 10 Year. That has the 2s/10s spread steepening to 32.5 bps. Mortgage rates slipped back under 7.25% yesterday, and today's move gives them room to improve further.

Today's News and Market Impact

The strong labor data from earlier did not stop the rally. Jobless claims were 189K against a 196K estimate, October layoffs fell to a three year low, and Fed officials Barkin and Hammack are talking about gradual rate hikes. Those are headwinds for bonds, which is why the rally is a risk driven move and not a data driven one. A selloff can reverse as quickly as it starts.

The bigger event is tomorrow. The October employment report is due Friday, and a strong number could undo a flight to safety move in a hurry. Locking in a gain from a one day stock rout is the safer way to treat a rally like this.

Benchmarks

10-Year Treasury: 4.835% yield ▼ 5.2 bps (price 98.353)
UMBS 6.0 Coupon: 100.28 ▲ 0.08
2s/10s Spread: 32.5 bps

Lock or Float?

15 Days: LOCK. Jobs data is due tomorrow and a selloff driven rally can reverse fast. Take the improvement with a close this near.

30 Days: LOCK. Yields are lower today, but event risk is high and Fed speakers are leaning hawkish. Protect the gain.

30-45 Days: CAUTIOUS FLOAT. The 10 Year is falling further below 5.00% and momentum is building. Float only with a plan to lock on any bounce after Friday's report.

45+ Days: FLOAT WITH CAUTION. More time to benefit if the stock selloff keeps pulling yields down, but a reversal in equities would bring yields right back. Set a clear lock trigger.

Ready to see your numbers? Check today's pricing at purerate.com/rates, run your scenario with our calculators, follow the Rate Watch, learn more at purerate.com, or apply now.

Drew Fisher, NMLS #44061 | Pure Rate Mortgage LLC, NMLS #2578474. This commentary is for educational purposes and is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of any rate or term.