Bond markets are closed for Columbus Day, so Friday's levels stand as the benchmark and the lock bias holds

The U.S. bond market is closed today for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples' Day, so there is no new Treasury or MBS trading and no lender rate sheet reprices on a market move. The levels that matter are Friday's final prints: the 10 Year Treasury yield closed at 5.243%, up 0.9 bps on the day, and UMBS 6.0 closed at 98.27, up 0.05 (5 bps). Friday was another round trip for bonds, with MBS finishing the day better than where they started the morning.

The backdrop is constructive but not yet convincing. Mortgage rates ended last week at two week lows after Thursday's biggest one day drop in three months, and the September unemployment rate came in little changed at 4.2%. Even so, the 10 Year yield sits above 5.2% and the 30 Year Treasury yield is near 5.6%, so rates are still elevated by any recent standard.

The real test arrives this week, once trading resumes Tuesday. September CPI is released Wednesday morning at 8:30 AM ET, followed by Producer Prices and Retail Sales on Thursday. Economists expect headline inflation to stay firm on higher gas prices. Fed Chair Warsh speaks Thursday, and the next FOMC meeting is October 27 and 28. A hot inflation print would push yields right back up.

Today's News and Market Impact

With the bond market shut, the story today is the calendar, not a price move. Friday ended with the 10 Year yield at 5.243%, 0.9 bps higher, and the 2 Year yield at 4.789%, up 2.9 bps, which leaves the 2s/10s spread at 45 bps. UMBS 6.0 gained 5 bps to 98.27 while the 10 Year price slipped 0.091 to 95.237. Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks today, but with no trading, nothing can be locked at a new price until Tuesday. Rates are near two week lows, yet one good week is not a confirmed bottom with CPI two days away. Borrowers close to their lock deadline should not use the holiday to gamble on a lower print.

Benchmarks

10 Year Treasury: 5.243% ▲ (yield up 0.9 bps)
UMBS 6.0 Coupon: 98.27 ▲ (up 0.05, 5 bps)
2s/10s Spread: 45.4 bps

Lock or Float?

15 Days: LOCK. CPI lands Wednesday and PPI and Retail Sales follow Thursday. With yields above 5.2% and no trading today, there is no reason to take event risk on a short timeline.

30 Days: LOCK. Two weeks at the low end of the recent range is not a confirmed trend. CPI, Fed Chair Warsh on Thursday, and the October 27 and 28 FOMC meeting all sit inside this window.

30-45 Days: LOCK. Thursday's rally and Friday's steady close are single data points, not a confirmed bottom. Until yields show a genuine reversal, protect the rate.

45+ Days: LOCK. The 10 Year is still above 5.2% and the 30 Year near 5.6%. No bottom is in yet, so the bias stays with locking until a real reversal is confirmed.

Ready to see your numbers? Check today's pricing at purerate.com/rates, run your scenario with our calculators, follow the Rate Watch, learn more at purerate.com, or apply now.

Drew Fisher, NMLS #44061 | Pure Rate Mortgage LLC, NMLS #2578474. This commentary is for educational purposes and is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of any rate or term.

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