This week is significant as it is a Fed week, typically characterized by calm followed by one major move. Most activity will occur on Wednesday (Fed) and Friday (inflation).

Here's a simple breakdown of the week:

Monday – Light day

- Durable Goods and Treasury auction.  

- Mostly background noise as markets position for the week.  

- What it means for you: Rates likely steady with small moves and low volatility.

Tuesday – Jobs and Housing Data

- ADP Employment (private payrolls), home price reports, consumer confidence, and a 5-Year Treasury auction.  

- This serves as our first real test.  

- What it means for you: Moderate rate movement possible, potentially setting the tone for Fed day with medium volatility.

Wednesday – THE BIG DAY  

- MBA mortgage applications, Fed Interest Rate Decision, and Fed Press Conference (Powell speaks).  

- The Fed is likely to maintain current rates, but Powell's statements are crucial.  

- What it means for you: Expect volatility, with rates possibly moving 0.125–0.25% in one afternoon, indicating high volatility.

Thursday – Labor Market Check  

- Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, and a 7-Year Treasury auction.  

- More jobs data will be released.  

- What it means for you: Smaller moves than Wednesday, which can confirm or reverse the Fed's reaction, leading to medium volatility.

Friday – Inflation Watch  

- Producer Price Index (PPI) is released.  

- Inflation is the primary driver of mortgage rates.  

- What it means for you: Morning volatility, as lenders often reprice mid-day, resulting in medium-high volatility.

Simple Game Plan:  

If you’re closing soon:  

• 0–2 weeks: lock  

• 2–4 weeks: consider locking before Wednesday  

If you’re 30+ days out:  

• floating may make sense, reassess after Fed  

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